HCP figures: total inflation 2.8%, food 4.7%
The April 2026 CPI published by HCP shows: total inflation +2.8% over 12 months (vs +3.1% in March 2026), food inflation +4.7% (vs +5.2% in March — slight slowdown). Core inflation (excluding volatile food and regulated energy) remains at +1.9%, within Bank Al-Maghrib's 1-3% target range. The persistent differential between total and food inflation means that a household with food share > 35% of its budget (lower middle and popular classes) suffers effective inflation of 3.8-4.2%.
Items on the rise: meat, fruits, oils, fish
Item-by-item analysis reveals where pressure concentrates: (1) Red meat +9.2% over 12 months — kg of beef went from 95 to 105 MAD on national average, lamb from 130 to 142 MAD. Direct consequences: persistent 2022-2025 drought causing 18% drop in sheep flock, costly Argentine and Brazilian imports. (2) Fresh fruits +7.8% — bananas (insufficient Souss local production), apples (Midelt harvest impacted by 2025 hail), citrus still affected by mealybug. (3) Table oils +5.1% — imported sunflower oil from Ukraine/Russia volatile, local olive oil stabilized.
Stable or declining items: subsidized products and grains
Three categories escape inflation: (1) Subsidized soft wheat flour — stable, price regulated at 2.80 MAD/kg in 50 kg bag, the Compensation Fund subsidy system absorbs imported wheat increases. (2) Sugar and tea — stable thanks to partial subsidies. (3) Dry legumes (lentils, chickpeas, white beans) — nearly stable (+0.8%) because local Zaër and Saïs production is increasing.
Purchasing power impact: 230-380 MAD/month less per household
For an average Moroccan household with monthly budget 8,500 MAD (median middle class disposable income), with 38% in food (3,230 MAD), food inflation of 4.7% represents a food purchasing power loss of 152 MAD/month if consumption remains identical — i.e. 1,824 MAD/year. Accounting for total inflation of 2.8% on the rest of the budget (5,270 MAD), the total loss reaches approximately 295 MAD/month or 3,540 MAD/year.
Concrete budget protection strategies
Five validated strategies: (1) Hypermarket vs neighborhood grocery purchase — 12-18% savings on identical baskets. (2) Municipal markets and weekly souks — 25-35% savings on fresh fruits/vegetables vs supermarkets. (3) Bulk buying of dry products — 10-15% savings. (4) Substituting red meat (105 MAD/kg) with chicken (32 MAD/kg) or legumes (10-15 MAD/kg) 3-4 times/week — potential savings 400-600 MAD/month for family of 4. (5) Prioritizing seasonality — 30-50% savings vs off-season.
Article based on official public data + wafir.ma expert sources. All cited statistics are verifiable with the mentioned organizations.
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