Morocco Real Estate Credit Observatory — Q3 2026

The macroeconomic environment of H1 2026 was marked by monetary policy stability: Bank Al-Maghrib held its policy rate at 2.25% at the March and June 23, 2026 councils (5th consecutive hold), citing inflation expected in line with the price stability objective (1.5% on average in 2026, 2.1% in 2027 after around 0.8% in the previous two years), the consolidation of economic activity and strong international uncertainty. This stability anchors the mortgage grids of major banks: the average market rate stands at 4.64% in H1 2026 according to the Afdal barometer (36,500 offers), a differential of roughly 240 basis points with the policy rate, reflecting bank margins and the cost of risk. Total bank credit reached 1,301.8 billion MAD at end-June 2026 (+10.9% year-on-year), a clear acceleration from end-March (+7.4%). Next Bank Al-Maghrib Board meeting: September 22, 2026, with analyst consensus on another hold.

Two public indicators, with different scopes, help locate the cost of mortgage credit. (1) The Afdal barometer, built on 36,500 real offers from ten partner banks, gives an average rate of 4.64% in H1 2026, versus 4.59% in H2 2025: after several semesters of decline, the average is edging up again. The best offers, around 4%, remain reserved for the strongest profiles, and conditions vary markedly by borrower status once the APR and death-disability insurance are included — private-sector employees obtain the most competitive conditions on long maturities. (2) Bank Al-Maghrib's quarterly survey on lending rates, which covers all newly granted real estate loans (households and developers), shows 5.06% in Q2 2026 after 5.13% in Q1, as the all-loans global rate rose to 4.81% (from 4.66% a year earlier). On wafir.ma, the ranges observed in 2026 run from 3.75% (prime profile: permanent contract, high income, large down payment, 15-20 year term) to 4.80% (non-negotiated counter offer), with most offers between 4.10% and 4.50%; MRE benefit from dedicated grids starting lower (3.55-4.30%). These ranges are indicative, dated and depend on negotiation.

No public source publishes an exhaustive breakdown of mortgage borrowers by profile; this reading therefore relies on the segmentations made public by the Afdal barometer and the Daam Sakane review, supplemented by aggregated, anonymized simulations from wafir.ma, with no claim to statistical representativeness. Four demand families stand out. (A) The salaried urban first-time buyer, the banks' core target: the profile with the most competitive conditions on long maturities, and the main Daam Sakane beneficiary (52% of beneficiaries are under 40, 47% are women). (B) Moroccans living abroad: 24% of Daam Sakane beneficiaries, with dedicated bank grids and remote procedures. (C) Civil servants and formal-sector employees, who rely on the public guarantees Damane Iskan and FOGALOGE. (D) Irregular or informal incomes, eligible for the FOGARIM guarantee, for whom conditions are less favorable. According to the Afdal barometer, retirees, civil servants, private-sector employees and business owners are not treated identically, especially once death-disability insurance is included in the APR.

Bank Al-Maghrib does not publish a quarterly regional breakdown of housing loans. The best available public indicator is the regional distribution of Daam Sakane applications released by the Ministry of Housing (December 2024 progress update): Casablanca-Settat 30% of applications, Fès-Meknès 25%, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra 15%, Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma 8.5%, Marrakech-Safi 7%, with the remainder spread across other regions. This distribution, centered on subsidized housing, over-represents Fès-Meknès compared with the overall market, where Casablanca-Settat concentrates most of the transaction value. The May 2026 review also confirms strong activity in intermediate provinces (Fès, Meknès, Kénitra, El Jadida, Oujda, Béni Mellal), and 40% of properties bought through Daam Sakane cost 300,000 MAD or less. On wafir.ma, simulation demand remains dominated by the Casablanca-Rabat-Tangier axis, with a notable share of MRE requests directed at the North and the Souss (qualitative observation, not quantified).

Launched in early 2024 for the 2024-2028 period, the Daam Sakane direct housing aid program passed the symbolic 100,000 effective beneficiaries milestone in 2026: 101,521 completed acquisitions according to the official May 2026 review, out of 193,000 applicants declared eligible, a trajectory in line with the initial target of about 100,000 beneficiaries per year. Applications grew 17.6% between 2024 and 2025. Beneficiary profile: 52% are under 40, 47% are women, 24% are Moroccans living abroad, and 40% bought a property worth 300,000 MAD or less (the bracket entitling to the 100,000 MAD aid, versus 70,000 MAD between 300,000 and 700,000 MAD). The cumulative value of acquired properties reaches 41.7 billion MAD for 8.32 billion MAD injected by the State. The declared satisfaction rate is close to 70%, 67.3% of homes are located near amenities and services, and 46% of buyers live within 20 minutes of their workplace. Knock-on effect: cement sales rose 31.84% (April 2026 vs April 2025) and construction starts 39.62% since the program was announced. Limit identified by the ministry: the shortage of suitable supply in some secondary cities.

Our reading for the second half of 2026 (qualitative, non-modeled scenario): the policy rate should stay at 2.25% at the September 22 Board, with analyst consensus expecting another hold; client rates should move within a narrow band around the current average (4.6-4.7% per the Afdal barometer), as the slight rise seen in H1 and the increase in the all-loans global rate (4.81% in Q2) limit short-term prospects for a decrease. Housing loan volumes, growing moderately (+2.7% year-on-year), should remain supported by Daam Sakane and by the summer seasonal peak tied to MRE. Three recommendations for borrowers: (1) Negotiate actively — between an offer at 3.75% and a counter offer at 4.80%, the interest gap on a 1M MAD loan over 25 years is around 175,000 MAD (wafir.ma calculation, constant installments, excluding insurance). (2) Check Daam Sakane eligibility before signing: the 70,000 to 100,000 MAD aid reduces the borrowed capital by the same amount. (3) For MRE, request the dedicated grids (3.55-4.30% observed) and prepare proof of foreign income in advance.