Our expert reading of the data — each chapter is supported by the official sources cited in methodology
01
Macroeconomic context and monetary policy
The macroeconomic environment of Q2 2026 was marked by the Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) policy rate increase to 2.75% (+25 bps, first hike since 2023), decided at the May 6, 2026 council to anchor inflation expectations at 2.8%. This decision, foreseeable but with immediate consequences on credit cost, triggered in less than 60 days a complete repricing of major bank real estate credit grids. The policy rate / client real estate rate differential remains high at 317 bps on average.
02
Rate evolution by bank (12 players analyzed)
The observatory compares rate grids from 12 Moroccan banks for a standard 1M MAD loan over 25 years, salaried executive CDI profile. Q2 2026 ranking from lowest to highest rate: (1) CIH Bank — 5.55% (first-time buyer commercial effort), (2) BMCI — 5.68%, (3) Attijariwafa Bank — 5.75%, (4) Banque Populaire — 5.80%, (5) BMCE Bank of Africa — 5.85%, (6) Société Générale Maroc — 5.90%, (7) Crédit du Maroc — 5.95%, (8) Crédit Agricole du Maroc — 6.00%, (9) CFG Bank — 6.05%, (10) Bank Assafa (participative) — equivalent rate 6.10% via Mourabaha, (11) Umnia Bank — 6.15%, (12) Al Akhdar Bank — 6.20%.
03
Typical borrower profiles and segmentation
Analysis of 18,700 sampled files in Q2 2026 reveals four dominant profiles: (A) Urban first-time buyer 32-42 years (54% of files) — salaried CDI, income 12-25k MAD/month, 3-bedroom purchase at 1.2-2.5M MAD, median down payment 22%, duration 22-25 years, median rate 5.90%. (B) MRE 35-55 years (18% of files) — Europe income converted, higher down payment 35-45%, shorter duration 15-20 years, preferential rate via MRE programs 5.40-5.60%. (C) Local rental investor 40-55 years (16% of files). (D) Affluent families first villa 38-50 years (12% of files).
04
Regional analysis: Casablanca, Rabat, Tangier, Marrakech, Agadir
Geographic distribution of Q2 2026 real estate credits reflects Morocco's economic concentration: Casablanca-Settat 41% of volumes (9.6 billion MAD), Rabat-Salé-Kénitra 18% (4.2 billion), Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma 12% (2.8 billion — Tanger Med boom), Marrakech-Safi 9% (2.1 billion), Souss-Massa 7% (1.6 billion Agadir-Inezgane), Fès-Meknès 5%, other regions 8%.
05
Daam Sakane impact and intermediate housing policy
The Daam Sakane program, launched in March 2024 and now in cruise phase, recorded 9,700 new beneficiaries in Q2 2026 (+18% vs Q2 2025) for cumulative 52,800 helped households since launch. Typical beneficiary profile: couple 30-40 years, combined income 10-18k MAD/month, 3-bedroom purchase 80-110 sqm between 700k and 1.2M MAD, in Casablanca (38%), Rabat (18%), Tangier (15%), Marrakech (8%), others (21%).
06
H2 2026 forecasts and recommendations
Our central scenario for H2 2026: stable real estate credit volumes (+1-3% vs H1) with slight traditional Q3 peak (MRE summer) then Q4 slowdown. On rates, base scenario expects stability 5.85-5.95% until end-Q3, then slight decrease 5.70-5.80% end-Q4 if BAM initiates easing cycle (60% probability per our models). For borrowers, three recommendations: (1) Strong profile → negotiate actively, 60-80 bps gap possible between banks, i.e. 50-70k MAD savings over 25 years. (2) First-time buyer → check Daam Sakane eligibility (cumulative savings up to 150k MAD). (3) MRE → prioritize dedicated programs.
