Inflation stabilized below 2.5%
According to figures published by Morocco's High Commission for Planning (HCP) in early May, annual inflation was at 2.3% in April 2026, remaining sustainably below BAM's 3% tolerance threshold. This inflation easing contrasts sharply with the 10.1% peak reached in February 2023 and confirms the effectiveness of restrictive measures taken between September 2022 and March 2023 (four successive hikes bringing the rate from 1.50% to 3.00%).
The gradual return of the policy rate to 2.75% since March 2024 reflects a desire to support economic recovery without reigniting inflationary pressures. Moroccan GDP grew 3.4% in Q1 2026 per BAM, driven mainly by services, agriculture (excellent cereal campaign at 75 million quintals estimated) and tourism (8.2 million visitors over 4 months, +14% vs 2025).
Impact on borrowers: credit rate stability
For Moroccan borrowers, this decision means continued welcome tariff stability. Mortgage rates should continue to oscillate between 4.8% and 5.9% at major banks (Attijariwafa, BMCE, BP, CIH, Société Générale), while consumer credit rates remain in the 6.5-9% range for best profiles. Mortgage Mourabaha at the 5 participatory banks follows similarly with rate-equivalent margins of 5.4-6.8%.
Savers: yields to monitor
On the savings side, the environment remains unattractive: traditional savings books yield 2.5-3% gross at most banks, a near-zero real return after inflation. 10-year Treasury bonds trade around 3.5%, money market UCITS between 2.8% and 3.2%, and short-term bond SICAVs in the same range.
Long-term savers may consider PER (Retirement Savings Plan — IR-deductible up to 50,000 MAD/year), equity SICAVs (BMCE Capital, CFG Bank, Wafa Gestion offer products with 6-9% projected returns over 5+ years), or rental real estate (5-8% gross yields by city and property type).
Real estate market: comfortable stability
For Morocco's real estate market, policy rate stability is a positive signal. Real estate prices in Casablanca increased 3.8% over 12 months per the ANCFCC index, in Marrakech +4.2%, in Rabat +3.1%, in Tangier +5.8% (driven by Tangier Med effect and Renault/Stellantis EV plant). This moderate, sustainable growth contrasts with the 2018-2022 surge (+8-15%/year) and offers a more predictable environment for buyers.
Outlook for September 2026 meeting
BAM's next Council meeting will take place on September 23, 2026. Economists surveyed (BMCE Capital Research, CDG Capital Insight, AGR) unanimously anticipate a hold at 2.75% barring major surprises. A cut to 2.50% could be considered in early 2027 if inflation remains sustainably below 2% and if economic growth needs additional monetary support.
For Moroccan households and businesses, the message is clear: take advantage of this window of monetary stability to finalize credit or investment projects. Compare bank offerings on wafir.ma to identify the most advantageous conditions, and remember that spreads between banks can reach 0.5-1 point in rate for the same borrower profile.
Article based on official public data + wafir.ma expert sources. All cited statistics are verifiable with the mentioned organizations.
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